Papers and preprints

Publications

Work from the group and collaborators on learning dynamics, bias, curricula, continual learning, optimisation, and statistical physics.

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Unown placeholder for The Interplay of Data Structure and Imbalance in the Learning Dynamics of Diffusion Models
May 2026 arXiv preprint

The Interplay of Data Structure and Imbalance in the Learning Dynamics of Diffusion Models

Flavio Nicoletti, Chenxiao Ma, Enrico Ventura, Luca Saglietti, Stefano Sarao Mannelli

Real-world datasets differ across classes in both structure and frequency, but most theory for diffusion models assumes homogeneous data. This work develops a high-dimensional analytical framework for class-dependent learning in score-based diffusion models. Using a random-features model trained on Gaussian mixtures, the paper characterizes how class...

diffusion models data imbalance fairness
Open paper
Unown placeholder for Position: the Stochastic Parrot in the Coal Mine. Model Collapse is a Threat to Low-Resource Communities
May 2026 ICML 2026 (Spotlight)

Position: the Stochastic Parrot in the Coal Mine. Model Collapse is a Threat to Low-Resource Communities

Devon Jarvis, Richard Klein, Benjamin Rosman, Steven James, Stefano Sarao Mannelli

Model collapse can degrade generative models when they are trained on outputs from earlier models. This position paper argues that the problem compounds existing concerns around large language models, including cultural bias, data degradation, environmental cost, and inefficient resource use. The authors highlight how these dynamics...

model collapse large language models AI safety
Open paper
Unown placeholder for Sharp description of local minima in the loss landscape of high-dimensional two-layer ReLU neural networks
Apr 2026 ICML 2026

Sharp description of local minima in the loss landscape of high-dimensional two-layer ReLU neural networks

Jie Huang, Bruno Loureiro, Stefano Sarao Mannelli

We study the population loss landscape of two-layer ReLU networks in a realisable teacher-student setting with Gaussian covariates. The work shows that local minima admit an exact low-dimensional representation through summary statistics, giving a sharp and interpretable description of the landscape. It also links local minima...

optimisation landscape neural networks
Open paper
Unown placeholder for Thinking of Neural Networks Like a Physicist: The Statistical Physics of Machine Learning
Apr 2026 Proceedings of the Analytical Connectionism Schools 2023--2024, PMLR 320:15-41, 2026

Thinking of Neural Networks Like a Physicist: The Statistical Physics of Machine Learning

Kai Jappe Sandbrink, Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Florent Krzakala

This pedagogical paper introduces statistical-physics approaches to machine learning, based on material presented at Analytical Connectionism 2023. It reviews how tools such as the replica method and approximate message passing illuminate unsupervised learning problems, then turns to supervised learning and neural-network dynamics in lazy-learning and feature-learning...

statistical physics machine learning review
Open paper
Aug 2025 Phys. Rev. E 112, 025304 (2025)

Bias-inducing geometries: an exactly solvable data model with fairness implications

Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Federica Gerace, Negar Rostamzadeh, Luca Saglietti

Machine learning (ML) may be oblivious to human bias but it is not immune to its perpetuation. Marginalisation and iniquitous group representation are often traceable in the very data used for training, and may be reflected or even enhanced by the learning models. In the present...

fairness data imbalance
Open paper
Mar 2025 Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society 47 (CogSci 2025)

Curriculum learning in humans and neural networks

Younes Strittmatter*, Stefano Sarao Mannelli*, Miguel Ruiz-Garcia, Sebastian Musslick, Markus Wolfgang Hermann Spitzer

The sequencing of training trials can significantly influence learning outcomes in humans and neural networks. However, studies comparing the effects of training curricula between the two have typically focused on the acquisition of multiple tasks. Here, we investigate curriculum learning in a single perceptual decision-making task,...

curriculum learning
Open paper
Mar 2025 ICLR 2025; J. Stat. Mech. 2025, 114001

A Theory of Initialisation's Impact on Specialisation

Devon Jarvis, Sebastian Lee, Clémentine Carla Juliette Dominé, Andrew M Saxe, Stefano Sarao Mannelli

Prior work has demonstrated a consistent tendency in neural networks engaged in continual learning tasks, wherein intermediate task similarity results in the highest levels of catastrophic interference. This phenomenon is attributed to the network's tendency to reuse learned features across tasks. However, this explanation heavily relies...

continual learning
Open paper
Sept 2024 ICLR 2025; J. Stat. Mech. 2025, 084004

Optimal Protocols for Continual Learning via Statistical Physics and Control Theory

Francesco Mori, Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Francesca Mignacco

Artificial neural networks often struggle with catastrophic forgetting when learning multiple tasks sequentially, as training on new tasks degrades the performance on previously learned ones. Recent theoretical work has addressed this issue by analysing learning curves in synthetic frameworks under predefined training protocols. However, these protocols...

optimal control continual learning
Open paper
Jul 2024 TMLR

How to choose the right transfer learning protocol? A qualitative analysis in a controlled set-up

Federica Gerace, Diego Doimo, Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Luca Saglietti, Alessandro Laio

Transfer learning is a powerful tool enabling model training with limited amounts of data. This technique is particularly useful in real-world problems where data availability is often a serious limitation. The simplest transfer learning protocol is based on ``freezing" the feature-extractor layers of a network pre-trained...

transfer learning
Open paper
Jun 2024 CogSci 2024 (Oral)

A meta-learning framework for rationalizing cognitive fatigue in neural systems

Yujun Li, Rodrigo Carrasco-Davis, Younes Strittmatter, Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Sebastian Musslick

The ability to exert cognitive control is central to human brain function, facilitating goal-directed task performance. However, humans exhibit limitations in the duration over which they can exert cognitive control -a phenomenon referred to as cognitive fatigue. This study explores a computational rationale for cognitive fatigue...

cognitive control fatigue continual learning
Open paper
May 2024 NeurIPS 2024

Bias in Motion: Theoretical Insights into the Dynamics of Bias in SGD Training

Anchit Jain, Rozhin Nobahari, Aristide Baratin, Stefano Sarao Mannelli

Machine learning systems often acquire biases by leveraging undesired features in the data, impacting accuracy variably across different sub-populations. Current understanding of bias formation mostly focuses on the initial and final stages of learning, leaving a gap in knowledge regarding the transient dynamics. To address this...

fairness spurious correlations data imbalance
Open paper
May 2024 ICML 2024

Tilting the Odds at the Lottery: the Interplay of Overparameterisation and Curricula in Neural Networks

Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Yaraslau Ivashinka, Andrew Saxe, Luca Saglietti

A wide range of empirical and theoretical works have shown that overparameterisation can amplify the performance of neural networks. According to the lottery ticket hypothesis, overparameterised networks have an increased chance of containing a sub-network that is well-initialised to solve the task at hand. A more...

curriculum learning lottery ticket hypothesis
Open paper
Feb 2024 ICML 2024

Why Do Animals Need Shaping? A Theory of Task Composition and Curriculum Learning

Jin Hwa Lee, Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Andrew Saxe

Diverse studies in systems neuroscience begin with extended periods of training known as 'shaping' procedures. These involve progressively studying component parts of more complex tasks, and can make the difference between learning a task quickly, slowly or not at all. Despite the importance of shaping to...

compositionality curriculum learning
Open paper
Jun 2023 Phys. Rev. X 15, 021051 (2025)

RL Perceptron: Generalization Dynamics of Policy Learning in High Dimensions

Nishil Patel, Sebastian Lee, Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Sebastian Goldt, Andrew Saxe

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have proven transformative in a range of domains. To tackle real-world domains, these systems often use neural networks to learn policies directly from pixels or other high-dimensional sensory input. By contrast, much theory of RL has focused on discrete state spaces or...

reinforcement learning curriculum learning
Open paper
Unown placeholder for Maslow's Hammer for Catastrophic Forgetting: Node Re-Use vs Node Activation
May 2022 ICML 2022

Maslow's Hammer for Catastrophic Forgetting: Node Re-Use vs Node Activation

Sebastian Lee, Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Claudia Clopath, Sebastian Goldt, Andrew Saxe

Continual learning - learning new tasks in sequence while maintaining performance on old tasks - remains particularly challenging for artificial neural networks. Surprisingly, the amount of forgetting does not increase with the dissimilarity between the learned tasks, but appears to be worst in an intermediate similarity...

continual learning
Open paper
Unown placeholder for Probing transfer learning with a model of synthetic correlated datasets
Jan 2022 Machine Learning: Science and Technology

Probing transfer learning with a model of synthetic correlated datasets

Federica Gerace, Luca Saglietti, Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Andrew Saxe, Lenka Zdeborová

Transfer learning can significantly improve the sample efficiency of neural networks, by exploiting the relatedness between a data-scarce target task and a data-abundant source task. Despite years of successful applications, transfer learning practice often relies on ad-hoc solutions, while theoretical understanding of these procedures is still...

transfer learning
Open paper
Unown placeholder for Analytical Study of Momentum-Based Acceleration Methods in Paradigmatic High-Dimensional Non-Convex Problems
Dec 2021 NeurIPS 2021

Analytical Study of Momentum-Based Acceleration Methods in Paradigmatic High-Dimensional Non-Convex Problems

Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Pierfrancesco Urbani

The optimization step in many machine learning problems rarely relies on vanilla gradient descent but it is common practice to use momentum-based accelerated methods. Despite these algorithms being widely applied to arbitrary loss functions, their behaviour in generically non-convex, high dimensional landscapes is poorly understood. In...

optimisation momentum
Open paper
Unown placeholder for Epidemic mitigation by statistical inference from contact tracing data
Aug 2021 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Epidemic mitigation by statistical inference from contact tracing data

Antoine Baker, Indaco Biazzo, Alfredo Braunstein, Giovanni Catania, Luca Dall’Asta, Alessandro Ingrosso, Florent Krzakala, Fabio Mazza, Marc Mezard, Anna Paola Muntoni, Maria Refinetti, Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Lenka Zdeborova

Contact tracing is an essential tool to mitigate the impact of a pandemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been paid to...

epidemic mitigation
Open paper
Unown placeholder for Optimization and Generalization of Shallow Neural Networks with Quadratic Activation Functions
Dec 2020 NeurIPS 2020

Optimization and Generalization of Shallow Neural Networks with Quadratic Activation Functions

Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Eric Vanden-Eijnden, Lenka Zdeborova

We study the dynamics of optimization and the generalization properties of one-hidden layer neural networks with quadratic activation function in the overparametrized regime where the layer width m is larger than the input dimension d. We consider a teacher-student scenario where the teacher has the same...

optimisation landscape
Open paper
Unown placeholder for Complex Dynamics in Simple Neural Networks: Understanding Gradient Flow in Phase Retrieval
Dec 2020 NeurIPS 2020

Complex Dynamics in Simple Neural Networks: Understanding Gradient Flow in Phase Retrieval

Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Giulio Biroli, Chiara Cammarota, Florent Krzakala, Pierfrancesco Urbani, Lenka Zdeborova

Despite the widespread use of gradient-based algorithms for optimising high-dimensional non-convex functions, understanding their ability of finding good minima instead of being trapped in spurious ones remains to a large extent an open problem. Here we focus on gradient flow dynamics for phase retrieval from random...

optimisation landscape
Open paper
Mar 2020 Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment

Thresholds of descending algorithms in inference problems

Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Lenka Zdeborova

We review recent works (Sarao Mannelli et al 2018 arXiv 1812.09066, 2019 Int. Conf. on Machine Learning 4333–42, 2019 Adv. Neural Information Processing Systems 8676–86) on analyzing the dynamics of gradient-based algorithms in a prototypical statistical inference problem. Using methods and insights from the physics of...

optimisation landscape review
Open paper
Unown placeholder for Marvels and pitfalls of the Langevin algorithm in noisy high-dimensional inference
Mar 2020 Physical Review X

Marvels and pitfalls of the Langevin algorithm in noisy high-dimensional inference

Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Giulio Biroli, Chiara Cammarota, Florent Krzakala, Pierfrancesco Urbani, Lenka Zdeborova

Gradient-descent-based algorithms and their stochastic versions have widespread applications in machine learning and statistical inference. In this work, we carry out an analytic study of the performance of the algorithm most commonly considered in physics, the Langevin algorithm, in the context of noisy high-dimensional inference. We...

optimisation landscape
Open paper
Unown placeholder for Who is Afraid of Big Bad Minima? Analysis of gradient-flow in spiked matrix-tensor models
Dec 2019 NeurIPS 2019 (Spotlight)

Who is Afraid of Big Bad Minima? Analysis of gradient-flow in spiked matrix-tensor models

Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Giulio Biroli, Chiara Cammarota, Florent Krzakala, Lenka Zdeborova

Gradient-based algorithms are effective for many machine learning tasks, but despite ample recent effort and some progress, it often remains unclear why they work in practice in optimising high-dimensional non-convex functions and why they find good minima instead of being trapped in spurious ones. Here we...

optimisation landscape
Open paper
Unown placeholder for Passed & Spurious: Descent Algorithms and Local Minima in Spiked Matrix-Tensor Models
May 2019 ICML 2019

Passed & Spurious: Descent Algorithms and Local Minima in Spiked Matrix-Tensor Models

Stefano Sarao Mannelli, Florent Krzakala, Pierfrancesco Urbani, Lenka Zdeborova

In this work we analyse quantitatively the interplay between the loss landscape and performance of descent algorithms in a prototypical inference problem, the spiked matrix-tensor model. We study a loss function that is the negative log-likelihood of the model. We analyse the number of local minima...

optimisation landscape
Open paper

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